State of the Insurgency 2010
a new report issued by Maj.Gen. Michael Flynn has some interesting statistics and assessment of the Taliban-led insurgency.
Notably is the emphasis on the growing and relentless strength of the insurgency which the report dubs as ‘self-sustaining’.
for example, from page 19:
The situation is serious ‐‐ significant change is required.
- We have a key advantage – Taliban is not a popular movement (yet); population is frustrated by GIRoA, we must make them believe ISAF / GIRoA can succeed
- Taliban represents an existential threat — only they have sufficient organizational capability and support to pose a threat to GIRoA’s viability (they are most coherent in the south)
- Regional instability is rapidly getting increasing and worse
- New strategy will incur risks — not properly executing the strategy has greater risk
- Taliban strength is the perception that its victory is inevitable; reversing momentum requires protecting the population and changing perceptions
- Under-resourcing significantly elevates risk, increases lag time, and is likely to cause failure 19
- Success requires operating / thinking, in a fundamentally new way
– Longer war
Greater – Higher overall costs
– Loss of political support